E5 Research Paper No. 2
The Rate Improves and the Distance Grows: Black–White Economic Disparity Across Five Decades of U.S. Federal Data
“The rate improved; whether the distance shrank depends on which distance is measured — and the disagreement among the measures is the finding.”
Key figure
Figure 1. Median family wealth by race, 1989 and 2022. The Black–white wealth ratio nearly tripled (0.056 → 0.158) while the constant-dollar gap widened from $154,830 to a series-high $240,120 — level-improvement, gap-narrowing, and ratio-convergence disagreeing in a single chart. Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances via FEDS Notes Figure 2 accessible data.
Abstract
This article asks whether improvement in Black economic outcomes has produced convergence with white outcomes. It uses a descriptive longitudinal design and four federal data systems covering 30 to 83 years: the Survey of Consumer Finances, Current Population Survey, Census of Housing and American Community Survey, and Home Mortgage Disclosure Act records. Four findings emerge. First, Black median family wealth rose 388% from 1989 to 2022 and the Black–White wealth ratio nearly tripled, yet the constant-dollar wealth gap widened from $154,830 to a series-high $240,120. Second, the Black–White unemployment ratio ranged from 1.576 to 2.560 across 54 years and never inverted. Third, the homeownership gap was wider in 2022 and 2023 than at the passage of the Fair Housing Act. Fourth, mortgage denial rates fell for both groups while the Black–White denial ratio remained above 2.0 in every selected year from 1993 through 2022. The findings show that level-improvement, gap-narrowing, and ratio-convergence are logically independent and empirically disagree across the four domains. The rate improved; whether the distance shrank depends on which distance is measured — and the disagreement among the measures is the finding. The analysis is descriptive and does not identify mechanisms.
Scholarly record
- Status
- Under peer review — Review of Black Political Economy
- Manuscript ID
- RBPE-26-0057
- Submitted
- September 11, 2026
- Length
- 7,712 words · 4 tables · 2 figures · 18 references
- Keywords
- racial wealth gap; unemployment; homeownership; mortgage denial; Survey of Consumer Finances
- Source manuscript
- doi:10.5281/zenodo.22703028 (Zenodo preprint, v1.4.4 — relationship disclosed in the cover letter)
- Data
- Public federal series only: SCF (Federal Reserve FEDS Notes), CPS (BLS LNS14000006 / LNS14000003), Census/ACS summary files, HMDA published summaries
- Access
- Subscription route; no paid open access
Cite this paper
Armstead, Israel Lee. “The Rate Improves and the Distance Grows: Black–White Economic Disparity Across Five Decades of U.S. Federal Data.” E5 Research Paper No. 2. E5 Enclave Inc., 2026. Submitted to the Review of Black Political Economy (manuscript RBPE-26-0057). Source manuscript archived at Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22703028.
Version history
2026-09-11
Submitted to the Review of Black Political Economy as manuscript RBPE-26-0057.
2026-09-11
Derivative v0.4 finalized after independent cold peer review — all six major findings addressed, every figure re-verified against source data.
2026-09-11
Source manuscript v1.4.4 published on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.22703028) — 101 pages, data snapshot, reproducible code, correction ledger.
